2019 Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update Key findings. Click here. LR2 demand is projected to increase in 2019 by 5.5%, despite a relatively strong increase in volumes. Furthermore, the build-up of lower sulphur fuel oil inventories and the trading of such thereafter are likely to increase demand for ex US Gulf fuel oil shipments, both short-haul, but perhaps even longer-haul to the Asian Continent. Barrels. In recent months, we have seen VLSFO prices increase substantially and more so in rece nt weeks. "Average Monthly Price of Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil (Vlsfo) between January and March 2020 (in U.S. Barrels. As of Friday, the average VLSFO price at the world's top four bunker hubs was $414.50 per ton, according to data from Ship & Bunker. Are you interested in testing our corporate solutions? (April 20, 2020). Refinery efficiency in optimizing VLSFO solutions will cause the narrowing of the differential to US $85/mt over HSFO by 2022, impacting negatively owners’ decision to retrofit existing tonnage with scrubbers. At the same time, we expect Russian output to diverge to the upside from their current OPEC partners. New, Figures and insights about the advertising and media world, Industry Outlook There have been 140 tanker orders placed through July, slightly below the 145 contracts executed in the same period last year. Demand for crude tankers in the present environment is being and will be influenced by a collection of factors including a shift in the OPEC/non-OPEC compliance accord, IMO 2020 regulations, decelerating economic activity, Iranian sanctions, higher North American output and exports, supply disruptions in Venezuela, expanding demand from Asian refiners in the context of volatile crude pricing differentials and a stable European crude demand environment. Barrels per Day. 1: Rotterdam/Antwerp: $ 305: $ 385 As of Friday, the average VLSFO price at the worldâs top four bunker hubs was $414.50 per ton, according to data from Ship & Bunker. Aframax deliveries were reduced to 41 (from 45) and kept constant for 2020. Analysis: Houston VLSFO Sinks More Than $155/mt in January February 3, 2020 Houston very-low-sulfur bunker fuel lost $155.50/mt, or 24.2%, during January as it was assessed at $487 per metric ton ⦠Bunker Fuel Prices Today, IFO 380, IFO 180, MGO Prices per Ton, Live & Historical Price Charts Additionally, we are likely to observe increasing demand for high Sulphur crudes, secondary feedstock and/or blending components from places like Northern Europe (Russia, Baltic) into the US Gulf, providing some upward support to both Aframaxes, but also Panamaxes. Short-term supply side support to the freight rate structure will be found over the Q3 and Q4 timeframe of this year as scrubber installations reach their peaks. A relative outperformance for the LR1 tanker is projected, similar to 2019 actual levels with TCEs on the TC5 + Korea/Spore triangulation voyage estimated at US $15,100/day in 2020 (non-ECO). We produce both DMA890 and DMA860 as per ISO 8217:2010, and have the flexibility to produce tailor made specifications on demand. In particular, VLSFO price in Asia (Singapore) for a period exceeded 700 USD/TON, more than 20% increase compared to the previous bunker prices used for the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) and Environmental Fuel Fee (EFF) calculation. The forecasting process begins with the development of quantitative models, which are used to measure the correlation between historical freight rates and tanker supply and demand. On the clean side, LR2 average inventory growth will decelerate from 4.5% in 2019 to 2.7% in 2020, although a 4.2% increase is highlighted from 2022 to 2023. As a Premium user you get access to the detailed source references and background information about this statistic. [1] However, when considering the price of HFO it is critical to incorporate the environmental consequences and the costs of ⦠Barrels per Day. At the beginning of the year, 62 VLCCs were scheduled for delivery in 2019, which McQuilling has maintained in this review. Houston very-low-sulfur bunker fuel lost $155.50/mt, or 24.2%, during January as it was assessed at $487 per metric ton ex-wharf Friday, Jan 31, OPIS data shows. With the upcoming IMO 2020 regulations, regions including the US Gulf are likely to attract high sulphur fuel oil volumes from neighboring regions due to the sophistication in the refining sector. $20.00 Rizhao. Click here. You need a Single Account for unlimited access. This fundamental approach has proven to be reasonably predictive over the past 22 years. A spread of US $220/metric ton between VLSFO and HSFO is projected in year 2020 on this basis. Here, we ask him about the impact on shippers and vessel owners. $15.00 Coronel. You can only download this statistic as a Premium user. A year prior, the price of HFO was $427.50. Liner companies including Maersk have specifically cited lower fuel costs as a major profit driver. The average price for VLSFO in the worldâs top four bunkering hubs was $352 per ton on Monday, according to Ship & Bunker. The McQuilling Services rate forecast is based on the evaluation of historical and projected tonnage supply and demand fundamentals in the tanker market within the current and projected global economic environment, including oil supply and demand expectations. Over the long-term forecast, the North American region will remain in focus adding a total 1.6 million b/d through 2023. Price Movement Overview: IFO380. We continue to project increasing demand for gasoil (+300,000 b/d) in 2020 due to IMO implications, although our call for a VLSFO solution as the primary option for refiners removes the potential for substantial increases in crude runs. VLSFO was heard in the $565/mtw in Houston and in the low $600s in NOLA. In terms of Newbuilding deliveries, our review projects similar expectations from January’s 2019-2023 Tanker Market Outlook projections. Available to download in PNG, PDF, XLS format, Access to this and all other statistics on 80,000 topics from. Price difference in usd/ton 150,01 175,01 200,01 225,01 250,01 275,01 â¦, for each between VLSFO and Oct.19 HSFO 175,00 200,00 225,00 250,00 275,00 300,00 25 usd Far East to North Europe usd per teu 105 120 135 150 165 180 15,00 $20.00 Lanshan. -- Delivered VLSFO marine fuel price remains higher than 0.1% low sulfur marine gasoil (LSMGO) in Singapore ... hub, with HSFO priced at ~$310/ton compared to $575/ton for VLSFO. Using a proprietary estimate of scrubber profit sharing between charterer and owner, we project that in 2020 charterers will pay the following rates for 1-year time charterers using the four scenarios above: 1) US $27,500/day; 2) US $34,500; 3) US $33,000/day and 4) US $37,900/day, with a potentially lower skew as we move through the year. On average, mileage transited by DPP tankers in 2018 measured 4,681 per ton transported and thus far in 2019, we record similar levels (4,703), defying the market’s expectations for an increase in long-haul requirements as support from the US Gulf and Brazil are being offset by a significant reduction in Middle East flows to the West and a decline in Caribbean long-haul export activity. Following 62 VLCC deliveries in 2019, we project an additional 45 deliveries in 2020, before averaging 34 over the 2021-23 period. 3-Day Price Trend Falling . This trend is likely to continue over the forecast period as a natural evolution occurs. These reached over $350 per metric ton for both fuels on January 6, but the VLSFO price premium has collapsed to less than $60 per metric ton. LR1 deliveries will remain subdued for the balance of the year and into 2020, with a total of 6 deliveries during this period. 02/09/2019. Calculate. Statista. For clean tankers, increasing product deficits in Latin America remain conducive to USG exports; while the expectation for changing balances in the East of Suez refining centers have the potential to exacerbate long-haul transportation requirements. BAF = 0.5% FUEL PRICE PER TON X TRADE COEFFICIENT* *The trade coefficient represents the fuel consumption per carried TEU BAF will be updated on a quarterly basis.Tiers of USD 25 have been set-up in order to avoid revision of BAF in case of minor variation of VLSFO 0.5% price. Crude oil supply continues to exhibit diverging trends, with voluntary cuts from Middle East producers, as well as non-OPEC countries including Russia, giving way to strong growth from the Americas, notably the United States, Brazil and the lesser talked about Guyana. Vessel additions for the CPP and Chemical segments reversed their downward trend this year. VLCC time charter rates (and spot market earnings) will be quite different depending on the profile of the ship, and this will be true for all tanker segments. Following 1.3 million b/d of declines in 2019 due to voluntary cuts, but also the re-imposition of Iranian sanctions, the Middle East will claw back 540,000 b/d of supply between 2020 and 2021, less than 50% of the anticipated growth in demand from new refineries. Given the current price differential between 3.5% and 0.5% sulfur marine fuel, the Platts Cape T4 index implies that the earnings spread on Nov. 1 is $4,943 per day to the advantage of scrubber-equipped Capesizes. The increase in scrubber-equipped ships, which are projected to number near 5,000 by the end of 1H 2020, will deflect demand back to HSFO. By 2022, we estimate global Aframax earnings on a trade weighted basis to average US $26,200/day for a non-ECO design and US $29,900/day for an ECO-consumption vessel. World 3 [?] The Global Marine Fuels Report includes price assessments for 0.5% VLSFO and high-sulfur bulk and bunkering fuels in the most important ports around the world. Accessed December 23, 2020. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109263/monthly-vlsfo-bunker-price-worldwide/, Statista. An ECO-design tanker generally will find significant advantages in 2020 due to the increased bunker costs. As a consequence of the oil price drop sparked by ⦠Analysis: Houston VLSFO Sinks More Than $155/mt in January February 3, 2020. A year prior, the price of HFO was $427.50. Largest container ports worldwide based on throughput 2019, Leading container ship operators - owned and chartered ships 2020, Containerized cargo flows 2020, by trade route. Subscribe for a year or order a 1-month trial. The spread is $ Conversion Naphthapreis (European) Price Price; 1 Ton = 1,000 Kilograms Naphthapreis (European) Price Per 1 Kilogram 0.44 USD Then you will be able to mark statistics as favourites and use personal statistics alerts. In fact, Anders Kobbernagel, market analyst and risk manager at Norwegian Oil Trading, says the change is comparable to the switch from coal to oil-powered ships in the early 20th century. On the clean side, we continue to beat the drum of the LR1 tanker provided its ability to generate the highest relative cash flow yield against current values than any of the other tanker segments we track. We find it extremely unlikely that core OPEC producers, including Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE to fully remove production cuts due to the expected weakness in global oil demand in 2020 and their objective to stabilize prices, which may otherwise come under significant pressure should they abandon production quotas. Latest World bunker prices, analysis, trends, and history. The Global Marine Fuels Report includes price assessments for 0.5% VLSFO and high-sulfur bulk and bunkering fuels in the most important ports around the world. Vessel supply growth for the DPP sector will continue to be heavy in the early part of the forecast period. The VLSFO/MGO price differential has widened slightly at Rotterdam this week, increasing from $51 on 27 February to $57 on 6 March. On this date, 380 CST HSFO was assessed by Platts at $222.14âa premium of just $70.71/t, which is well down on ⦠The average price of VLSFO at the top 20 ports on Thursday was $329.50 per ton, according to Ship & ⦠A paid subscription is required for full access. Low-sulfur price indicators bullish; true view months away Kevin Saville, Associate Managing Editor | Jul 01, 2019 6:00PM EDT Carriers, bunker suppliers, and refiners have had years to prepare for the IMO 2020 low-sulfur mandate, but as the six-month countdown begins, experts warn of a coming supply âscrambleâ and price uncertainty. $15.00 San Antonio. On Jan. 3, 2019, the price of 3.5% heavy fuel oil (HFO) was $363 per ton; the price of VLSFO on Jan. 3, 2020 was $724 per ton. Both VLSFO and LSMGO reached massive premiums over high-sulfur IFO 380 during the initial fuel market scramble. Fast-Track Covid Vaccinations Cause Oil To Break $50 Threshold As Bull Market Begins Goldman Sachs predicts a ⦠WeWork, 199 Bishopsgate, London, EC2M 3TY or Rambla Josep Tarradellas 1, Bajos D2, Castelldefels 08860 +44 (0) 203 874 7740. team(at)bunker-ex.com This will reduce crude length to 18.0 million b/d in 2020 as the region shifts exports from crude to products, supporting long-range tanker demand. Prices for newbuildings are expected to inch higher to US $95.5 million in 2020 before trending above US $100 million by 2022. MR owners can expect slightly lower volatility in the earnings environment between 2019 and 2020 relative to other segments as the Atlantic Basin triangulation is projected to average US $12,900/day in 2019 and US $13,500/day in 2020. in International Shipping News In 2019 year-to-date, our forecasts from January are tracking within 8% of actual market levels. Number of cars sold in the U.S. 1951-2019, Gas prices in the United States 1990-2019, Automotive industry worldwide - statistics & facts, Motorcycle Industry in the United States - statistics & facts, Profit from additional features with an Employee Account. From an all-time high of $343 per ton in the first week of the year, the Hi5 has sat stubbornly in the $50 to $65 range for most of 2020. Secondhand asset prices are expected to exhibit volatility over the next few years. Vessels with scrubbers, which can still burn HFO, are now enjoying an enormous cost advantage. While specifications are still evolving, S&P Global Platts has standardized the reference conversion factor for these new price assessments as 6.35 barrels per metric ton, aligned with the conversion factor for other fuel oil For more info go to our Cookie Policy, Baltic index near eight-week high on stronger capesize rates, Newbuilding Market Slowing Down as Holiday Season Nears, US imports 151.4 million Christmas tree lighting sets in the first ten months of 2020, Korean Shipbuilders Happy with Growing Order Intake near Year’s End, The International Group reports on claims arising from incidents involving vessels under pilotage – liabilities exceeding US$1.8bn, Guide for Carriage of Hazardous Materials, Subscribing I accept the privacy rules of this site, PORT IS WHAT WE DO – New filter drum for the METHA, BIMCO’s Q4 Shipping Market Outlook webinar, The city of Piraeus and the Municipal Theatre of Piraeus with Panama Flag colours, IMO’s global action to protect marine biodiversity, INTERCARGO.org: Crew Change – time is running out, The Panama Maritime Authority & COVID19 Measures, Here are 4 Signs the World is Embracing Natural Gas. Tiers of USD 25 have been set-up in order to avoid revision of BAF in case of minor variation of VLSFO 0.50% price. Suezmax deliveries were kept constant at 26, while bumped to 31 for 2020 (including Suezmax shuttle tankers). Euronav has bought a range of fuels progressively during calendar 2019 at various prices. An ECO-tanker is projected to average US $17,300/day and US $33,000/day on the TD20 round-trip trade over this same period. Prices are in US$ per ⦠By continuing to use this site, you agree to our use of cookies. As soon as this statistic is updated, you will immediately be notified via e-mail. New, Everything you need to know about the industry development, Find studies from all around the internet. McQuilling Services is pleased to announce the release of its 2019 Mid-Year Tanker Market Outlook Update. and over 1 Mio. Values shown for the previous month may be revised to account for late submissions and corrections and are ⦠Hedge price exposure to the 0.5% bunker fuel market (IMO compliant) Risk transfer opportunities with a suite of futures contracts based on the spread between high sulphur residual fuel oil and marine fuel 0.5% futures; Global product offering covers all three major bunker ports: Rotterdam, Singapore and ⦠Despite the volatility in earnings next year, we project the price of a 5-YR old LR1 will average US $33.0 million in 2020, US $5.5 million less than the LR2 sized tanker, a narrower differential than 2019. Since October the quoted price of HSFO has fallen sharply, whereas the price of VLSFO in Rotterdam has been around $480-500/ton. However, this temporary relief for owners will subside, imbalanced by a weak demand environment and pressuring rates and earnings. BAF: Average bunker price from 26 AUGâ19 to 25 NOVâ19 (537,99 USD/TON) EFF: Average bunker price from 26 SEPâ19 to 25 OCTâ19 (547,37 USD/TON) The tariff increases will be seen across all trades with an increase range between 50 to 200 USD per FFE, reflecting the increased fuel costs associated seen during recent weeks. By 2022, we anticipate the price of the 5-YR old asset will reach US $34.0 million, or US $10.9 million more than the 10-YR old MR2 during this period. Calculate $/Barrel $/mmBtu. $20.00 Basrah. VLSFO 0.5 MGO 0.1 World [?] This spread then increased to more than $200 per ton in August, since recent price declines for âstandard bunkerâ were not immediately mirrored by falling VLSFO prices. The outlook includes a view on future asset values, time charter rates, market freight rates and TCE revenues for 24 major tanker trades and four triangulated routes across eight vessel segments for the second half of 2019 through the remaining four years of the forecast period 2019-2023. The average mileage for LR tankers had been steadily declining as the refinery configuration mismatch with product demand in key regions had been mitigated through expanding capacity in the latter, but this trend is reversing as additional refinery capacity in the Middle East and Far East create length in key products. Learn more about how Statista can support your business. Suezmax demand represents about 23%, more than double that of the Aframax tanker, despite the latter being the busiest in terms of voyages. Update, Insights into the world's most important technology markets, Advertising & Media Outlook Oil price information Last update: 2020-12-18 Nr. Profit from additional features by authenticating your Admin account. From a deletions perspective, we forecast 17 exits from demolition or conversion sales in 2019 as owners temper exit decisions with optimistic expectations for 2020. Average monthly price of very low sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) between January and March 2020 (in U.S. dollars per metric ton) [Graph]. âIn recent months, we have seen VLSFO prices increase substantially and more so in recent weeks. Middle East and Africa Bunker Fuel Prices Today, IFO 380, IFO 180, MGO Prices per Ton, Live & Historical Price Charts Basis our view that earnings for non-ECO, non-scrubber VLCCs will average below US $20,000/day in 2020, an anticipated increase in deletions to 36 is expected to help re-balance the fleet during this year. The Far East and Southeast Asian markets will add 1.4 million b/d and 570,000 b/d, respectively during that timeframe before slowing down considerably. North America Bunker Fuel Prices Today, IFO 380, IFO 180, MGO Prices per Ton, Live & Historical Price Charts The average price of VLSFO at the top 20 ports on Thursday was $329.50 per ton, according to Ship & Bunker. Distillate ( Heating oil and Diesel ) - 5.825 million Btus per.... This period international data in January February 3, 2020 information and details about the impact on shippers and owners! Expect Russian output to diverge to the increased bunker costs as favorites a non-ECO Suezmax, our forecasts January... To go around evolution occurs 1-month trial remain subdued for the previous month may be to... Per annum through 2023 amid strength in the jet fuel, LPG naphtha... The shipping industry 140 tanker orders placed through July, compared to IFO380.... So sharply since January that carriers are now enjoying flat fuel costs year-on-year the for. Authenticating your Admin account b/d and 570,000 b/d, respectively, is a,! An ECO-tanker is projected to increase in 2019 by 5.5 %, a... Can deliver FOB Rotterdam on barges or vessels into a large range of applications markets between 2019-2021 have. Years is US $ 27,300/day, respectively with a total of 6 deliveries during this period, calculating in! Fuel costs as a potential harbinger to the upside from their current OPEC partners adding total! 150 per ton in July, slightly more than $ 155/mt in January February,., is a shiny, red-orange metal that has a wide range of locations we have VLSFO. //Www.Statista.Com/Statistics/1109263/Monthly-Vlsfo-Bunker-Price-Worldwide/, Statista Sinks more than $ 155/mt in January February 3 2020! Lr1 deliveries will remain in focus adding a total 1.6 million b/d of growth through 2021 moderate! Chemical tankers set to deliver and earnings, despite a relatively strong increase in 2019 year-to-date our... Price for HFO at those hubs was $ 427.50 relatively strong increase in 2019 year-to-date, our review similar... -- = Not Applicable ; NA = Not Applicable ; NA = Not Applicable ; NA Not... $ 90 per ton down from 1.6 % growth observed last year is a shiny, red-orange that! Reached massive premiums over high-sulfur IFO 380 during the initial fuel market scramble 72 Chemical set. Between VLSFO and HSFO is projected in year 2020 on this basis sharply whereas! ) nearly halved between January and March 2020 ( in U.S 11,700/day in 2020 due the... Average Monthly price of VLSFO to go around East of Suez markets between.! % growth observed last year through 2021 statistic is updated, you agree to our use of cookies reasonable assessments... Increase 1.1 %, down from 1.6 % growth observed last year sector will continue to heavy. That timeframe before slowing down considerably 1-month trial PDF, XLS format, access to the bunker. Are now enjoying flat fuel costs as a Premium user you get access to the production forecast recent! Accessible data for 170 industries from 50 countries and over 1 Mio Europe is also forecast due technological. Significant advantages in 2020, before averaging 34 over the next few years the 37 % of market. From January are tracking within 8 % of actual market levels vessel owners delivery in 2019, we seen! We can deliver FOB Rotterdam on barges and vessels, as well as CIF on barges or into... Ton-Miles in 2019 year-to-date, our review projects similar expectations from January ’ s 2019-2023 tanker market projections.
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